The Semiconductor Industry Association buried the number that reframes where the competitive pressure actually lands: $795.6 billion in global chip sales in 2025, and WSTS projects $1.5 trillion in 2026. That is not modest growth. That is a market that doubled in one calendar year, driven by AI infrastructure build-out that is absorbing semiconductor output faster than any single demand wave in the industry's history.
US-headquartered companies held 53.4% of 2025 market share, the highest since 1984. American R&D spending hit $76.8 billion. And since 2020, private-sector investment in domestic semiconductor capacity has crossed $770 billion across 160 announced projects. The policy thesis of the CHIPS Act is that you have to invest into the demand wave, not after it. The 2026 doubling validates that framing.
The SIA report also names the risk: "intensifying global competition" is not a rhetorical gesture. China is shipping domestic DUV lithography equipment this year. European governments are investing in national AI compute factories. Every government that watched the 2022 chip shortage and the 2023 AI frenzy is now writing checks. The $1.5T market is not a safe harbor for current market-share holders. It is a target. The teams and governments that invested in advanced packaging, BEOL process chemistry, and domestic substrate supply chains over the last 24 months are the ones positioned to capture the incremental $700B. Everyone else is chasing capacity that is already spoken for.